It’s been fascinating watching the scaremongering punditry around Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. Everything from confident predictions of escalation and nuclear war, to self flagellating accusations that the liberal west had been naive about global progress and that aggression was still an inevitable part of human nature.
It now seems as if Putin has miscalculated in a number of ways and there are glimmers of hope. But of course he did. War is probably the least predictable of all human activities.
In fact we have pretty much no clue of what is going to happen in the future. Even individually. Even tomorrow.
We should stop paying attention to pundits, or even our own fears. Who knows what will happen?
One thought on “We have no clue”
Like so much in life how you frame something defines how you see it.
Whilst we’re not be able to predict the longer term events out in the future we can reduce uncertainty about them.
And while 100% certainty is impossible, unnecessary and prohibitively expensive, we can make measurable reductions based on one, or more observations.